Recently, the domestic cotton spot market is like this weather general, appear silk cool. On the whole, the spot market is slightly stable, but there is a slight drop in the market. As of December 26th, Xinjiang, southern Akesu, Kashi and other places "double", "double 30" platform delivery price 16000-16200 yuan / ton, machine picked cotton 3128 platform delivery price 15400-15500 yuan / ton, the overall level. However, with the end of textile enterprises replenishment near the end, Xinjiang cotton prices already fell sharply trend! At this point, the industry has been confused about the trend of the recent cotton, the bearer has, the Bulls also have.
The sale of cotton at the end of the year
On 25-26 December, Kuitun "double 28/ double 29" machine cut cotton wool weight price to 15300-15400 yuan / ton, compared with the overall decline of 200 yuan / ton in mid December. "Double 30" apheresis cotton heavy offer from 15800-16000 yuan / ton down half a month to 15500-15600 yuan / ton, quotation and price clinch a deal more and more small. A Henan trader said the plan before the Spring Festival purchase 400-500 tons of "dual 28/ 29" machine picked cotton, but cotton processing enterprises and traders procurement staff enthusiasm to make some cotton enterprises unable to resist sustain the blows of Hutubi and Changji, even at the cost to promote turnover.
Kuitun, Shawan some cotton ginning factory reflect, 2016/17 Annual Northern local cotton prices of cotton sales progress although obviously behind the Corps, but ahead of Akesu, Kashi, Korla in three regions, with foreign buyers, the mainland Cotton Traders (mainly take the Zheng cotton contract "price" transaction) the main and textile factory, "the characteristics of Xinjiang were fast, slow" outstanding. As of late December, a large part of cotton ginning factory only 10-20 batch of lint (about 400-1000 tons), not a lot of inventory more than 25 batches of cotton ginning factory, Shihezi few ginning factories even plan for the Spring Festival, all receive payment clearance.
From the survey, cotton ginning factory storage of cotton picker machine with double 29/ double 30, Ma value and other standard number of spinnability is better, or sell in the pocket for security between shilly-shally. At present both cash sale or Zheng main contract hedging, cotton prices are not profit or even 200-300 yuan / ton loss, the higher the level, the better the quality of cotton price but lower cotton prices xinyoubugan.
How does the future of cotton after the market deduce?
We believe that the recent cotton market has a lot of advantages, restricting the rise of cotton space, local prices or continue to fall slightly, but the space is limited.
1, futures prices fall, the overall market.
A strong dollar, cotton, lack of direction, and for investors to liquidate long positions, last week the US cotton prices fell, cotton prices fell stagflation zheng. As of last Friday (23 th), Zheng cotton 1701 contract closed at 15150 yuan / ton, compared with the previous week's 15735 yuan / ton fell 585 yuan / ton, zhengmian increased fatigue, the latter is still showing a trend of weakness and weakness, and the lint spot market.
2, cotton prices fell stagflation, unfavorable spot market.
As of 26, the Akesu area of southern Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price 7.05-7.25 yuan / kg (lint percentage 38%-39%, moisture content 12%), according to manufacturer feedback, the recent focus of the cotton price fell 0.1 yuan / kg, drag on the stock market. In addition, the mainland local cotton also signs of decline. According to Shandong, Hebei and Hubei, cotton ginning factory, nearly 3-4 days, the cotton price is the focus in the 7.2-7.8 yuan / kg, the price of 0.15-0.2 yuan / kg weight decrease.
3, Xinjiang capacity gradually alleviated, textile enterprises Procurement prudent.
In December, the tension in Xinjiang has been gradually relieved in the early period, and the possibility of gradually smooth transportation in the aftermarket is more likely to increase the adverse effects of the cotton market. Xinjiang and picking up speed and has been basically completed, the processing quantity in December accelerating trend. As of December 25th, Xinjiang cotton processing volume exceeded 3 million 500 thousand tons, the national cotton processing volume exceeded 3 million 630 thousand tons. The domestic supply showed a very sufficient situation before the start of the reserve of cotton wheel in March 2017. At present, most textile enterprises have already stockpiled a certain stock of raw materials, in the short term, the willingness to purchase is reduced, and the price of leather cotton is suppressed.
4, reserve cotton round out soon, the sale price will increase part of cotton ginning factory.
2017 cotton reserves round out the sales will begin in March 6th, as time is tentatively scheduled for the end of August, the number of daily listing sales Zanan 30 thousand tons of arrangement. From this point of view, the sale period left to the market is only 2 months. The sales pressure of manufacturers is increasing, and cotton enterprises are actively shipping, so as to ensure that they consume inventory before going out, and some manufacturers also reduce the price of lint sale, so that some of the lint prices continue to fall.
Overall, although the textile enterprises before stocking is nearing completion, but due to the recent domestic cotton ginning factory has been around the part choose to stop receiving, reduction, cotton ginning factory processing affected manufacturers holding cotton stocks are still relatively tight, most ginning plant very price psychology still support the skin cotton spot market, or to limit the downside.